The Conservative Party, led by David Cameron, far from being
expelled from Government or being forced into a mish-mash of parties at the
head of a new coalition, actually gained 24 seats giving them an overall
majority of 12.
Labour failed to make the gains needed to become the largest
party and the Liberal Democrats dropped 49 seats to just 8, placing them as the
joint fourth largest party alongside the Democratic Unionist Party from
Northern Ireland.
North of the border in Scotland came perhaps the greatest
shift; the Scottish National Party took all but three of the 59 Scottish seats,
an increase of 50 from the last Parliament. Nigel Farage failed to win his seat
in South Thanet for the UK Independence Party as the so called “UKIP Effect”
failed to have any great impact on the landscape – the party secured only one
seat.
So what has this left us with? Well, certainly not what we
were expecting, the Government is now formed solely by Conservative MPs with no
need for any of the potentially fractious coalitions or deals that were
forecast. No, the Tories are now set free from those yellow leashes that have
held them back for the last five years and will be able see through their
programme of cuts and austerity as well as pushing their anti-Europe agenda in
the run-up to a referendum on that topic which is due in 2017.
It’s not likely to be an easy ride for Cameron during his
second (and what promises to be his final) term as Prime Minister though. The
rise of the SNP is a clear demonstration and demand for change in Scotland and
the Scots will no doubt use their new found Westminster clout to continue their
push for further powers to be devolved.
Many on the Tory backbenches still hold Cameron in poor
regard and will not be frightened of voting against the whips when they see fit
to do so.
The fractured opposition bench could also prove troublesome.
As the Government tries to appease so many parties in order to force through
its legislative programme it is likely that policies will be watered down in
order to make that process easier.
A United Kingdom?
The question that is already being asked alongside the
question of Scottish devolution is this: what about England?
Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales each have their own
legislative assemblies which are then overseen by the MPs in Westminster, but
England has no such assembly.
Many have predicted the United Kingdom is likely to become a
federal democracy and I also see this a potential and perhaps appealing way to
deal with the question.
I am drawn to the idea for two main reasons; 1) a federal
system where each individual nation, or State, has its own legislative assembly
each with the same powers would provide a fair and level settlement for each
country; 2) the national assemblies could serve as a “lower house”, a function
currently performed by the House of Commons, and the Commons as an “upper
house”, the unelected, overpopulated and expensive House of Lords could then be
abolished whilst the system of checks and balances which is vital to any
credible democracy is maintained.
There is of course an argument against federalism. Critics
claim that the additional bureaucracy would be expensive and obstructive whilst
others say that this new trend of “destructive nationalism” will ultimately
destroy the United Kingdom, these arguments have failed to convince me personally.
I feel that it is only fair and right that if the current
devolved assemblies are granted further powers then England should enjoy those
same individual powers.
I do not hold this belief for the sake of patriotism, nor do
I believe that it unpatriotic to hold them, but I buy into the idea for the
sake of reason and logic; it seems unjustifiable to me that you could devolve
further powers to Scotland and indeed Wales and Northern Ireland whilst at the
same time not affording similar privilege to the English.
A Democracy not fit for purpose
Perhaps more, or at least equally, concerning than the future
of the Union is the future of the very basis of our democracy; the First Past the
Post (FPTP) voting system.
Under this current system the candidate in each constituency
who obtains the most votes is elected as the MP for that constituency, the
Party which then obtains the most MPs – or a majority of at least 326 – is invited
to form the next Government.
But this is unfair; there is no requirement for the
ruling party to have won the most votes. Indeed David Cameron’s new Government achieved
only 36.9% of the votes cast across the United Kingdom (a total of 11,334,920),
this means that 63.1% of voters voted against the Conservatives, that’s 19,438,990
people.
The problem is illustrated further when you change how you
rank the parties. When ranked in order of seats the Conservatives are first,
Labour second, SNP third and the Liberal Democrats and the DUP are joint fourth.
When ranked in order of their percentage share of the national vote the story
is quite different; the Conservatives and Labour remain first and second but
UKIP are now third ahead of the Lib Dems who are still in fourth with the SNP
dropping to fifth with the Green Party rising to sixth from ninth.
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| Top: Parties ranked by number of seats Bottom: Parties ranked by vote share (%) (C) BBC News |
Clearly this is absurd. UKIP (whom I never thought I would
be defending) achieved the third greatest share of votes across the country
with 12.6% but will be sending only one MP to Westminster whilst the SNP who achieved
only 4.7% of the vote will be sending 56 MPs.
We need to introduce a voting system were the votes and therefore
the electorate are represented with greater reason and fairness.
My preferred system would be the Alternative Vote (AV),
whilst this is not a proportional system it does ensure that all MPs gain some
kind of true majority of votes.
Under this system voters rank the candidates in order of
preference, i.e. their most preferred candidate is number 1, their second
preference number 2 and so. When the votes are counted if no candidate achieves
a true majority (that is he has not won at least 50% of votes cast +1) then the
candidate with the fewest first preference votes is eliminated and the second
preference votes from those ballots are then added to the appropriate remaining
candidates. This process is repeated until a candidate achieves a true
majority.
In 2011 a referendum was held in which voters were asked
whether or not the FPTP system should be replaced with AV, the result of that
poll was a resounding no. However I believe that were the public to be asked
that question again today that the answer would be quite different.
We are unlikely to be given that opportunity under a
Conservative government though as they would be likely to lose out under AV.
You can find out more about FPTP, AV and other voting systems on the Electoral Commission's website.
Heads have rolled
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| Ousted. L to R: Ed Milliband, Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage |
Within twenty-four hours of polls closing on Thursday night
three prominent party leaders had resigned. Ed Miliband of the Labour Party and
Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats have retained their own seats but saw many
of their colleagues lose theirs, even big hitters like Ed Balls the Shadow
Chancellor for Labour and Vince Cable the Business Secretary for the past five
years of the Lib Dems lost their seats. Nigel Farage of UKIP kept his promise
and resigned as party leader after failing to win his seat in South Thanet.
So who will next lead these three parties? The most
interesting and most important leadership battle will be that of the Labour
party, simply because it is only whoever leads that party that has any
realistic prospect of becoming Prime Minister.
Labour
 |
| Born to lead? L to R: Chuka Umunna, Andy Burnham, Liz Kendall |
Most immediately Chuka Umunna, Andy Burnham and Alan Johnson
were being discussed as the leading candidates for Labour leader. However so
far it is only Liz Kendall who has formally declared her intention to seek
election and Alan Johnson has ruled himself out of the contest. Mr Umunna told the BBC that he wanted to play "the fullest part in rebuilding our
party" but has yet to formally declare his intentions.
 |
| Deputies in waiting? L to R: Tom Watson, Caroline Flint |
Labour’s Deputy Leader and current acting leader Harriet
Harman has also said that she will not be seeking to return to the deputyship
and a contest for that position will therefore also follow. Tom Watson and
Caroline Flint are currently said to be considering running for Deputy Leader. Mr Watson said on Twitter that he would be “making a formal announcement soon” but
has launched a funding drive under the title “tom_for_deputy”. There has been
no word from Ms Flint but the Guardian understand that it is “extremely likely”
that she will seek election.
It is likely that Labour would be keen to retain a woman in
at least one of these roles so as to avoid falling into the “sexist elite”
stereotype which they have been keen to use against the Conservatives in recent
years.
My personal preference would be for Mr Umunna and Mr. Watson
to lead the party irrespective of gender as I believe that they would be the
best people to drive the Party forward towards the next election. I do though
think that Mr Umunna has a better chance of securing the Leadership than Mr
Watson does of securing the Deputyship. Mr Watson lies undeniably to the left
of the party and this may cause a struggle when seeking support from the
parliamentary party but could also be of great benefit when seeking support
from the unions for whom he is said to be the current favourite.
Whoever wins the opportunity to head the party will face a
difficult five years as they attempt to rebuild the party from the ruins left
behind in the wake of the recent election disaster.
Liberal Democrats
Trying to predict the next leader of the Liberal Democrats
is an altogether easier task than selecting a likely Labour successor due to
the incredibly limited pool of selection that they have.
 |
| The Lib Dem leadership race is likely to be limited. L to R: Tim Farron, Norman Lamb |
With only eight MPs to choose from it seems likely that
there are really only two candidates; Tim Farron who currently serves as the
Party President and Norman Lamb who served as a Health Minister under the last
Government.
It is however possible that the Lib Dems might change their
selection rules and elect a leader from outside their parliamentary party. This
would not be unprecedented; the leader of the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon, was not
standing as a candidate at the Westminster elections and the party therefore
has a separate leader for Westminster, they are of course a subordinate of Ms
Sturgeon though.
UKIP
It seems to me that there is only one candidate who can
succeed Nigel Farage as leader of UKIP and that person is… Nigel Farage.
It has often been said that UKIP is a one man band and a
cult of personality or ego trip for Mr Farage and I believe it. I do not think
that there are any other suitable candidates for the position and I do not
believe that Mr Farage will be content in letting the Party slip from his
grasp. UKIP was briefly led by Lord Pearson before Mr Farage was swiftly
returned to the post.
It is possible that UKIP’s only MP, Douglas Carswell, would
consider the leadership but he has already ruled himself out.
A testing five years
The next five years promise to be interesting if nothing else.
Many have predicted that under a majority Conservative Government the programme
of cuts and austerity seen since 2010 will be out shadowed by what follows
(indeed there is already some evidence that cuts and caps are being made to
disabled benefits).
But as I said in the opening of this post it is not likely
to be easy for Cameron. He faces a number of strong challengers in the Commons,
not least from his own back benchers.
It also seems clear to me that Mr Cameron will find it
impossible to remain as the Tory Leader – and therefore the Prime Minister – if
he is to keep his promise that he will not seek to be elected for a third term
as PM. It would be implausible for a Party to wheel out a new leader a matter
of weeks before polling day and for them to expect to win.
I therefore predict that Mr Cameron will be in Number 10 for
another three years at most – two years would to me seem to be a sensible amount
of time for the public to settle to the idea of a new leader. Stuff it! Let’s
just say Boris shall we?
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| Heir apparent? L to R: David Cameron, Boris Johnson |
The next Prime Minister leader will be Boris Johnson. And
the next victims of the Tories will be many.
